4DCu.be
a blog about programming, gaming, technology, ...
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KeyForge: How many decks were printed ?
KeyForge is often advertised as having 104 septillion possible decks per set (that is 104 followed by 24 zeros), but how many of those decks actually exist? Fantasy Flight Games never released data on how many decks were printed per run. Though with Dark Tiding having Evil Twin decks (exact...
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Capture-Mark-Recapture model in PyMC3
Imagine you wish to know how many fish are in a rather large pond… The water is murky so forget about counting them easily… In ecology this is a common problem! The population size of a species often needs to be known, but it is either impractical or simply impossible...
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COVID-19 impact on KeyForge
All our lives were impacted by COVID-19, but what was the impact on KeyForge sales? There was a very technical post last month, this one is intended for everyone that cares about KeyForge, but not the details of how to create models. 500 000 fewer decks registered during COVID This...
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Clustering the Palmer Station penguin data, using PyMC3
This post will be all about trying to infer the species various observations originated from, without actually having access to the labels. This might sound like a far-fetched example, but it happens more often than you might expect in biology! When studying large animals you can usually find clear differences...
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Bayesian analysis of sales data, using PyMC3
Bayesian analysis and probabilistic programming is fairly different from ‘regular’ analysis. So here I’ll take you through my first attempt at using PyMC3 to analyse sales data of KeyForge decks and explore the effects of COVID-19 restrictions and releasing new content. PyMC3 takes some getting used to, but at the...
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Like this blog? You can buy me a coffee now!
Recently a few people liked the MacroPad enough to give me a tip through Thingiverse. This is very much appreciated and now there is the option to contribute directly on this site as well! If any of the posts here were helpful to you and you want to show your...
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Printing Abyssal Conspiracy
Both KeyForge Adventures have been out for a while and as I’ve managed to defeat the Keyraken with all my decks it is time to have a look at Abyssal Conspiracy. Preparing cards for printing is done using the same to steps as described in this post. While adding the...